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Oil Climbs Above $146 as Falling Dollar Boosts Crude's Appeal
By Alexander Kwiatkowski
July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Oil climbed near to a record as the dollar fell to a new low against the euro, boosting the appeal of crude as a currency hedge.
Oil has gained 52 percent this year as the sliding U.S. currency and declining equities have prompted investors to buy commodities. The dollar dropped on speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will tell lawmakers today that credit-market losses will weigh on the country's economic growth.
``There is still a flow of money into oil out of the equities market because it is so weak and out of the dollar because it is so weak,'' said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. Oil prices ``will be looking for $150 in coming weeks.''
Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as $1.55, or 1.1 percent, to $146.73 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $146.34 as of 1:28 p.m. London time. Futures reached a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11 and have risen 96 percent in the past year.
The dollar fell to an all-time low of $1.6038 per euro in London from $1.5908 yesterday. The rising appeal of commodities caused by the declining value of the dollar has outweighed fears that an economic slowdown in developed countries will cut demand for oil.
OPEC Demand
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies about 40 percent of the world's oil, said it expects demand for its members' crude will fall next year as the global economy slows. The so-called call on OPEC crude next year will average 31.2 million barrels a day, a drop of 710,000 barrels a day from the forecast for 2008, the group said in its monthly oil market report today.
Brazil's state oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA said a strike by employees had cut 63,000 barrels a day of production. The union representing the workers previously said the action may reduce output by as much as 400,000 barrels a day.
Petrobras said it's still pumping crude from all but two of 38 offshore platforms affected by the strike in the country's Campos Basin, the source of about 82 percent of Brazil's production of 1.8 million barrels a day. Employees began a five- day walkout in the area yesterday over pay.
``Brazil is not as serious as we had expected,'' said Weinberg of Commerzbank. ``The real scale-down is less than 100,000 barrels a day.''
Pipeline Attack
Chevron Corp.'s Nigeria unit resumed oil output that had been cut after a militant attack on a pipeline almost a month ago. The assault resulted in about 120,000 barrels a day of lost production, Agence France-Presse reported at the time.
``The pipeline is back into service and production is resumed,'' Chevron spokeswoman Margaret Cooper said in an e- mailed statement yesterday.
Brent crude oil for August settlement traded at $145.31 a barrel, up $1.39, on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange at 1:03 p.m. The August contract, which expires tomorrow, reached a record $147.50 on July 11. The more-widely held September contract rose $1.21 to $146.54 a barrel.
U.S. oil supplies probably fell last week as record prices discouraged buying by refiners, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.
Crude stockpiles declined 2 million barrels in the week ended July 11 from 293.9 million barrels, according to the median of responses by six analysts before tomorrow's Energy Department report. Supplies had dropped 5.84 million barrels in last week's report, double the forecast.
Gasoline Supplies
Gasoline inventories probably gained 500,000 barrels from 211.8 million barrels the week before, the survey showed.
Inventories of distillate fuel, including heating oil and diesel, probably rose 2 million barrels from 122.5 million barrels. All the analysts predicted an increase.
Refineries probably operated at 89.3 percent of capacity, up 0.1 percentage point from the week before, the survey showed.
Global oil demand this year will grow by 1 million barrels a day to 86.81 million barrels a day, OPEC said in its report today, revising its estimate down by 100,000 barrels from last month. World demand is forecast to grow 0.9 million barrels a day in 2009, averaging 87.71 million barrels a day.
``The decline in demand for OPEC crude combined with increasing OPEC capacity should further ease market conditions and likely help moderate prices,'' said the report. ``Whether the market will fully benefit from the softening fundamentals will depend on other factors such as geopolitical tensions, financial markets developments and downstream constraints.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net
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