افزایش قیمت نفت به رکورد ۸۹دلار به دنبال رای قانونگذاران ترکیه مبنی بر اجازه استفاده نیروی نظامی به دولت جهت برخورد با کردنشینان یاغی در شمال عراق
شایان ذکر است ،عراق سومین ذخایر نفت جهان را بعد از عربستان سعودی و ایران دارد
Crude Oil Is Steady After Rising to Record on Turkish Iraq Vote
By Mark Shenk
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed after rising to a record $89 a barrel in New York on the vote by Turkish lawmakers allowing the use of military force against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq.
The assembly in Turkey's capital of Ankara backed the motion by 507 votes to 19, Parliament Speaker Koksal Toptan told lawmakers. An Energy Department report today showed that U.S. oil, gasoline and heating-oil supplies rose last week.
``The Turkish vote has scared traders,'' said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``The doomsday scenario is that things will spiral out of control and lead neighboring countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia to become involved. This isn't likely but it encourages people to be long oil.'' Longs are bets prices will rise.
Crude oil for November delivery fell 21 cents to settle at $87.40 a barrel at 2:52 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached $89, the highest since the contract was introduced in 1983. Prices are up 48 percent from a year ago. Prices rose the previous six days.
On Oct. 15, prices passed the previous all-time inflation- adjusted record reached in 1981, when Iran cut oil exports. The cost of oil used by U.S. refiners averaged $37.48 a barrel in March 1981, according to the Energy Department, or $84.73 in today's dollars.
Brent crude oil for December settlement fell 42 cents, or 0.5 percent, to settle at $83.13 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
``This is a bull market that doesn't want to stop,'' said Tom Bentz, a broker at BNP Paribas in New York. ``The trend is still higher and we will see $90 oil in coming weeks.''
Turkish Measure
The measure passed by Turkey's parliament allows Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to authorize one or more military assaults within a year. The U.S. has urged Turkey to stay out of northern Iraq, a relatively calm area of the country.
Iraq holds the world's third-biggest crude-oil reserves, after Saudi Arabia and Iran, according to BP Plc. Iraq's oil-rich northern region is controlled by a semi-autonomous Kurdish administration. Kirkuk, the center of the region, is about 100 miles (161 kilometers) from the Turkish border.
``Inventories aren't as important a factor in the market as they once were,'' said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York. ``There are macro factors, both economic and geopolitical, that are more important at the moment.''
Crude-oil stockpiles climbed 1.78 million barrels to 321.9 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 12, the report showed. A 750,000 barrel inventory gain was expected, according to the median of 17 responses in a Bloomberg News survey. Imports rose 5.5 percent to 10.41 million barrels a day last week, according to the Energy Department report.
OPEC Barrels
``There isn't much for the bears to hold onto today except for the inventory numbers,'' Mueller said. ``The import number was high, which might be a sign that some extra OPEC barrels are already arriving in the U.S.''
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed last month to produce an extra 500,000 barrels a day starting Nov. 1 to meet rising demand. World oil consumption peaks in the fourth quarter when refiners make heating fuel for the Northern Hemisphere winter.
The 10 OPEC members with production quotas, all except Angola and Iraq, increased output by 155,000 barrels to 26.88 million barrels a day in September, the highest this year, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
Fuel Inventories
Gasoline and heating oil fell after the Energy Department report showed that U.S. inventories rose last week. Gasoline supplies increased 2.77 million barrels to 195.8 million barrels. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 994,000 barrels to 136.3 million barrels.
The profit margin, or crack spread, for turning crude oil into fuels fell 10 percent to $5.3746 a barrel today, the lowest since Oct. 31, 2006, based on closing futures prices in New York. It rose to $30.479 on May 17, the highest since at least 1989.
Heating oil for November delivery fell 1.98 cents, or 0.9 percent, to close at $2.3189 a gallon in New York. Gasoline for November delivery declined 2.71 cents, or 1.3 percent, to settle at $2.1466 a gallon.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net .
![[نمودار هر اونس طلا برحسب دلار آمریکا]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[نمودار هر اونس نقره برحسب دلار آمریکا]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[نمودار هر اونس پلاتین برحسب دلار آمریکا]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/platinum/t24_pt_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[نمودار هر اونس پالادیوم برحسب دلار آمریکا]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/palladium/t24_pd_en_usoz_2.gif)
)
صعود مجدد یورو به نرخهای بالا و ثبت رکورد تاریخی جدید در سطح 1.4317، همان اتفاقی بود که پیشتر انتظار آن وجود داشت و بدان اشاره کرده بودم. در حال حاضر، دلار آمریکا همچنان در سطوح پایین قرار دارد و این احتمال قویاً وجود دارد که حرکت نزولی آن امتداد بیشتری داشته باشد؛ از جمله عوامل اصلی سقوط دلار می توان به این موارد اشاره کرد:)
)
اعلام مثبت و دور از انتظار تعداد اشتغال ایجاد شده در ماه سپتامبر (110.000 شغل) و تجدید نظر تعداد اشتغال دو ماه پیش از آن (ماه جولای و آگوست)، حرکت صعودی دلار آمریکا را در روز جمعه به همراه داشت. در اولین واکنش که با نوسان شدید بازار همراه بود، دلار در برابر تمامی ارزهای اصلی بازار تقویت شد. دلیل عمده صعود در اولین ساعت اعلام خبر، واکنش به افزایش تعداد اشتغال و بهبود لایه های زیرین اقتصادی کشور بود که حرکت قدرتمند اولیه دلار را موجب گردید. اما در ادامه، نه تنها حرکت صعودی دلار متوقف ماند بلکه در برابر پوند، دلار تضعیف شد! عوامل متعددی برای این حرکت مترتب است که به آنها اشاره می کنم: شروع حرکت بازگشتی و سقوط مجدد یورو پس از آن صورت گرفت که یکی از بانکهای بزرگ آمریکا (