+ نوشته شده توسط م.ب در دوشنبه بیست و پنجم اردیبهشت 1385 و ساعت
16:32 |
نوسان شديد در بازار جهاني طلا
طلا امروز با باز شدن بورس لندن شديدا؛ کاهش يافت و به ۶۸۵ دلار براي هر اونس رسيد در بازار طلاي تهران هنوز با وجود رسيدن به ساعت يک بعد ازظهر هيچگونه خريد و فروشي اتفاق نيفتاده است.
+ نوشته شده توسط م.ب در دوشنبه بیست و پنجم اردیبهشت 1385 و ساعت
14:52 |
توضيحات بانك مركزي و وزير اقتصاد در خصوص افزايش قيمت سكه قانع كننده نبود
الياس نادران گفت: وزير اقتصاد و برخي مسئولان بانك مركزي در نشست كميسيون اقتصادي مجلس پرونده هسته اي و كاهش نرخ سود بانكي را دليل افزايش ناگهاني قيمت سكه در روزهاي پاياني فروردين ماه اعلام كردند كه براي نمايندگان قانع كننده نبود. الياس نادران در خصوص نشست كميسيون اقتصادي مجلس با وزير امور اقتصادي و دارايي و مسئولان بانك مركزي به فارس گفت: پس از اتفاقاتي كه در بازار سكه افتاد و قيمت سكه در بانك كارگشايي به مرز 200هزار تومان و در خورده فروشيها فراتر از 200هزار تومان رسيد، كميسيون اقتصادي مجلس از نمايندگان دولت درخواست كرد در نشستي حضور يافته و توضيح دهند براي اين بحران چه تدبيري انديشيده اند. وي با بيان اينكه معاونان و رئيس كل بانك مركزي هيچ يك در كميسيون حضور نيافتند گفت: وزير امور اقتصادي و دارايي و برخي از مسئولان ادارات در نشست حضور يافتند و متأسفانه توضيحاتشان نه واقعي بود و نه قانع كننده. نادران يادآور شد: مسئولان وزارت امور اقتصادي و دارايي و بانك مركزي افزايش قيمت سكه را به دلايلي ارجاع مي دادند كه به هيچ وجه قانع كننده نبود مثلا ارجاع پرونده هسته اي ايران به شوراي امنيت و كاهش نرخ سود تسهيلات بانكي از جمله دلايل افزايش قيمت سكه عنوان شد. وي تصريح كرد: اين درحالي است كه ارجاع پرونده ايران به شوراي امنيت به ماه ها قبل باز مي گردد و هيچ اتفاق خاصي در ارتباط با پرونده هسته اي ايران در فروردين ماه نيفتاده بود. اين عضو اقتصاددان مجلس افزود: دليل ديگري كه مطرح شد، كاهش نرخ سود بانكي بود و عنوان ميشد مصوبه مجلس براي يكسان سازي نرخ سود و مصوبه شوراي پول و اعتبار سبب رشد قيمت سكه و افزايش تقاضا در بازار شده است. نادران تأكيدكرد: اين دليل نيز به اعتقاد من واقعي نبود زيرا سال گذشته شوراي پول و اعتبار براي يكسان سازي نرخ سود بانكي به يكباره نرخ سود خدمات كه بيشترين سهم در تسهيلات گيري از سيستم بانكي دارد را از 22 درصد به 16درصد كاهش داد اما هيج اتفاق غيرعادي در نظام بانكي كشور رخ نداد و گرايشي از سوي پس اندازها به بازار سكه مشاهده نشد. وي گفت: تصور مي كنم بانك تحليل درستي از اتفاقاتي كه در بازار سكه افتاده است نداشت و به هيچ وجه نتوانستند نمايندگان را قانع كنند كه اقدامات بانك براي مهار سكه كافي بوده است. عضو كميسيون انرژي مجلس اظهار داشت:هنگامي كه آثار افزايش قيمت سكه در 26، 27 و 28 فروردين بروز مي كند، بانك مركزي به جاي اينكه بازار سكه را مهار كرده و مديريت كند، اقدام عاجل و قابل توجهي را انجام نمي دهد تا اينكه در سي ام و سي و يكم وضعيت بازار بحراني شده و دولت اقدام به مديريت بازار مي كند. نادران تصريح كرد: در پي بروز اين اتفاق در كميسيون هاي مجلس بحثي را دنبال مي كنيم كه بر اساس آن در رخدادهاي كميسيون هاي تخصصي نظرشان را اعلام كنند تا دولت نيز مسائل را جدي تر بگيرد و چاره انديشي كند. وي گفت: اگر نظرات بانك مركزي را بپذيريم بدين معنا است كه اگر در آينده نزديك اين اتفاق در بازارسكه نيز نيفتد، در بازارهاي مشابه مثل ارز، مسكن و خودرو بايد منتظر بروز چنين وقايع غيرطبيعي و اختلالات قابل توجهي در بازارها باشيم. نادران تصريح كرد: بانك مركزي بايد نسبت به آنچه در بازار اتفاق مي افتد پاسخگو باشد و نبايد نقش تحليلگران دانشگاهي و يا افراد بيرون از قوه مجريه را بازي كند. وي اضافه كرد: بانك مركزي بايد بحران را مديريت كند زيرا در غير اين صورت با افزايش 30 يا 35 درصدي قيمت سكه در كشور مواجه ميشويم و عدم مديريت اين شرايط را به ساير بازارها تسري خواهد داد و نا امني اقتصادي ايجاد خواهد كرد. خبرنگار فارس به نادران گفت: در زمان بروز نا امني هاي اقتصادي گرايش مردم به خريدكالاهاي بادوام افزايش مي يابد، فكر مي كنيد مي توان بازار را در زمان بروز تحريم هاي احتمالي مديريت كرد؟ وي پاسخ داد: بانك مركزي به حد كافي در داخل و خارج از كشور ذخاير ارزي در اختيار دارد و مي تواند ذخاير كافي مسكوكات طلا را نيز حفظ كند و هرگاه احساس كرد بازار با عدم تعادل مواجه شده است با عرضه بيشتر نيازها را پاسخ دهد كما اينكه بانك مركزي پس از بروز بحران در بازار سكه اين كار را انجام داد. وي افزود: البته لازمه اينكار اين است كه بانك از ظرفيت هاي مديريتي خود به موقع استفاده كند.
+ نوشته شده توسط م.ب در جمعه پانزدهم اردیبهشت 1385 و ساعت
0:38 |
LONDON (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Within a recent piece by one of my fellow correspondents reminding investors that the dollar and gold are not moving in an exact inverse lockstep, it seems apposite to examine the reasons why this is the case. This set of explanations does not however include the invalid but often advanced argument that the dollar and gold have decoupled.
One factor is clearly the existence of interest rate differentials, a subject I delved into previously. The Federal Reserve Bank of the U.S. may be bringing to an end its phase of consistently raising interest rates, which have of late been attracting funds into the dollar rather than alternative currencies that offer lower interest rates but are not fundamentally overvalued. The possibility that the end of this period of rate tightening is imminent sets, in the minds of some, the stage for a dollar collapse.
But on the other hand, the Fed may not have finished raising rates yet. Thus, interest rate differentials interfere with the valuation of the dollar on the basis its fundamentals, and this has a knock on effect in the gold market.
Many who believe that the dollar and gold have decoupled are forgetting something basic and inescapable about the nature of financial markets; that things are realised and acted on by different groups of investors at different times. Thus while one group, composed, say, of many of those now piling into gold, may realise that the dollar is doomed, others may be sceptical of this line of reasoning. This being the way of things, the dollar and gold are unlikely to make their moves simultaneously.
Another factor is that arguably with every year that passes, the number of people holding the conviction that gold is an unshakable substitute currency, and something that deserves to be an ultimate store of value, decreases. Therefore, the number of people ready to invest in the metal at the slightest sign of dollar instability or heightening geopolitical risks to the world economy decreases also.
Some of those reluctant to trust their wealth to gold may be persuaded as others do so and the price of gold rises in response, but some will never subscribe, and some will instead move into alternative reserve currencies. The net effect is that lags and complications are introduced into the changes in the gold price that result from changes in the parity of the dollar.
All this of course presupposes that there should be a relationship between the value of gold and the value of the dollar. The dollar has for a long time now functioned as the world?s main reserve currency. It wasn?t always that way in the past, and it won?t always be that way in the future. Now is a period of transition; the dollar is unsteady on its feet, but the alternatives lack the kudos to step in fully as replacements. Therefore gold takes up a likely impermanent but currently indisputable position as a quasi currency.
There is also the likelihood that demand for gold for making jewellery and for use in industry has now entered a period of growth. China is the main force behind this, in gold as it is in other commodity markets, and underinvestment in gold projects in preceding years only adds to the effect. This supply versus demand imbalance in the gold market, existing at least until the host of new projects now in gestation at one stage or another come on stream, only adds to the bullish consensus for the metal. But it is probably a subsidiary factor.
Perhaps the best way of interpreting the whole gold price related melange is to underpin one?s holistic analysis with the assumption that the gold price will remain elevated by some proportion or another as long as the dollar remains unstable and no adequate alternative reserve currency is present.
But one must complement this by taking into account factors that may be temporarily more salient, such as the deranged words of Iran?s lunatic administration on this or that. Basic trends in demand and supply obviously have weight too. Plus, the overall analysis must be tempered by the reality that markets just don?t move neatly and exactly, but despite this, their essential direction remains unaltered and discernible.
Investors who want to call the fundamental top for the gold price, in other words that dictated by the underpinning factor just identified, should pay attention to where the dollar eventually settles, how long it takes people to get used to the currency?s new parity, and how quickly alternative reserve currencies move into the frame.
+ نوشته شده توسط م.ب در جمعه پانزدهم اردیبهشت 1385 و ساعت
0:37 |
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures notched a fourth winning session on Wednesday to close at their highest level in almost 26 years, but prices gained just over $1 an ounce -- their smallest one-day gain since mid-March. Concern about Iran's nuclear program, weakness in the U.S. dollar and strong oil prices had been raising demand for the precious metal. But on Wednesday, crude prices fell as much as $2 per barrel and strong U.S. economic data triggered some recovery in the U.S. dollar. June-dated gold futures closed up $1.10 at $668.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, off their early high of $679.80 an ounce. Prices briefly traded as low as $660 during the session. Front-month gold futures haven't traded this high since October 1980 or closed this high since September 1980, according to monthly charts from Thomson Financial. One-day moves in gold futures have been sizable in the past several weeks. The last time they rose $1 or less was between March 15 and 16. Gold "simply felt 'heavy' at the top," said Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com, referring to a brief pullback to a low of $660 Wednesday. He pointed out that the earlier pullback from the day's peak likely started in the silver pits. July silver dropped 41.5 cents, or 2.9%, to close at $13.795 an ounce Wednesday after trading as high as $14.42. But support is at $648 for gold, so there's "nothing special about $655-$658 here," said Nadler. "Twenty bucks' range is no big deal given where we are in the market." Global trouble Safe-haven buying has been driving gold prices higher. In particular, prices are being driven by concern about Iran, which continues to defy United Nations attempts to pressure it to halt its nuclear research. U.S. Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns said he expects a meeting of the U.N. Security Council and Germany next week to forge a binding resolution on Iran that could allow for sanctions, the BBC reported. Burns made the comments after diplomatic talks in Paris Tuesday to discuss the Iranian issue. On Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki said Russia and China have told Iran they will veto any resolution that involves sanctions or military action. That could create a rift between the permanent Security Council members -- Russia, China, France, the U.K. and the U.S. The "outrageous statements" Iran made Tuesday -- threatening to attack Israel in retaliation for any evil it perceives the U.S. to have initiated -- "set off another round of tremors throughout not only the investment community but the global community at large," said Nadler. "If these are the true intentions of the regime in Tehran, then the resolve to totally stop it from acquiring a single isotope will be absolute." The weaker U.S. dollar has also contributed to the current spike, with investors looking for investment alternatives. Since the gold contract is priced in dollars, the metal has become somewhat cheaper for non-U.S. investors. The dollar was last trading up 0.4% against the yen, recovering from early weakness after non-manufacturing ISM data and factory orders surprised on the upside. See Currencies. Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter, said gold has also gained recently as speculators, who had expected a correction from its current lofty levels, rushed to cover short positions. "The least talked about reason for gold's dramatic rise is the past shorting and manipulation of it by a group or groups who have been desperately trying to cover," he said. "The gold 'cartel' is imploding as we speak." Other metals futures eased from Wednesday's highs with the exception of copper, which saw its July contract close near the day's peak, up 2.85 cents at $3.305 a pound. July platinum rose $1.30 to $1,186.70 an ounce after a record $1,198, and June palladium closed down $4 at $382.35 an ounce. On the supply side, gold inventories were down 277,163 troy ounces at 7.33 million troy ounces as of late Tuesday, according to data from the New York Mercantile Exchange. Silver was up 3,010 troy ounces at 123.7 million troy ounces and copper was down 356 short tons at 16,318 short tons.
+ نوشته شده توسط م.ب در جمعه پانزدهم اردیبهشت 1385 و ساعت
0:35 |
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![[نمودار هر اونس پالادیوم برحسب دلار آمریکا]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/palladium/t24_pd_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[نموداري برابري دلار با يورو]](http://www.weblinks247.com/exrate/24hr-euro-small.gif)
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